Proverbs to Live By

Kansas agriculture in a water-limited future

By Melissa Harvey

Photos by Dan Donnert

Kansans, by nature, don’t trust fortune-tellers: tarot cards and crystal balls inspire a healthy dose of skepticism. That natural suspicion doesn’t stop us from wondering about tomorrow, though, especially with some indicators giving hints about what the future holds.

This is true in western Kansas, where limited precipitation and extensive pumping of the Ogallala Aquifer have dropped water levels to historic lows. In the last 20 years, geologists say that levels in parts of the Ogallala underlying Kansas have dropped as much as 1.7 feet. If the next 20 years follow this trajectory, some of the aquifer will be so depleted that Kansas might not have enough water to support current farm practices.

In that case, what happens if the wheat state can’t grow enough wheat? How do we keep America’s Breadbasket productive? Will future generations still make a Home on the Range?

Here today, gone tomorrow

Kansas’ decades-long policy for the Ogallala was “planned depletion,” one factor leading to water levels so diminished that the Kansas Water Authority made a major policy shift in 2023. They publicly acknowledged the elephant in the room: Our water is running out.

“We all knew it was true, but nobody wanted to say it out loud,” said Kansas Water Authority chair Dawn Buehler, in a recent lecture at Kansas State University. “We took a leap and finally said the policy of planned depletion is no longer in the best interest of the state of Kansas. It was huge.”

For those who believe the future isn’t set in stone, this first step may ensure viable agriculture for the next 20 years and beyond.

“We have a great opportunity to move in a positive direction, but we need to start making changes now,” said Brian Olson, head of the Western Kansas Research-Extension Centers.

Never put off to tomorrow what can be done today

Olson predicts a need for improved plant genetics and producers growing low-water-use forages, like millet or triticale. To support the beef industry, he said the most economical plan will be to produce these forages within a 10- to 12-mile radius around feedlots.

“If farmers only need to reduce water by 10, 15, or 20%, then they can probably stay in alfalfa and corn production systems. But if they have to reduce [water] by 40-50%, that's a total step change in the types of production practices that need to happen and the type of forages that need to be grown. This is determined by managing the Ogallala locally,” he said.

This move will benefit growers and beef producers alike, according to industry experts.

“We can change what we grow, and grow as things change,” said Clayton Huseman, executive director-feedlot division, Kansas Livestock Association. “The beautiful thing about a bovine is that a variety of forages will work.”

Where there’s a will, there’s a way

In Finney County, the agriculture sector drives the economy. When considering the county’s agriculture industry as a whole, though, it is beef production employing more than 11 times as many people and generating 11 times as much revenue, according to agricultural economist Bill Golden.

Golden and a multi-university team determined that corn generates about $970 per acre-foot of water while the dairy industry generates more than $93,000 per acre-foot of water. The beef industry comes in at over $165,000 per acre-foot.

Golden believes that livestock production will be even more important in the next 20 years.

“I’ve asked farmers, who [tell] me that corn production drives the economy, but it’s beef that drives the economy of western Kansas,” he said.

This is true in Groundwater Management District 1 (GMD1), which covers parts of five counties in western Kansas. The Ogallala supplies more than 98% of that district’s water, and the Kansas Geological Survey said aquifer thickness there has declined an average of 63%. As of May 1, the Kansas Mesonet reported most of GMD1 hadn’t seen one-half of an inch of rain since mid-December.

What is dry now will likely be more dry in 20 years.

Even so, GMD1 Manager Katie Durham believes that farmers are taking positive steps for future generations, such as creating Local Enhanced Management Areas (LEMAs) that conserve a minimum 10% of water, with many farmers saving more. Where producers used to believe that they had to “use it or lose it,” Durham said farmers now think about water stability.

“People are looking at their water like they look at a bank account – it creates a different mindset. You notice when you’re paying for five streaming services when you only wanted Netflix,” she explained. “Farmers realize what water they can spend, and what they can save.”

The future belongs to those who prepare today

Despite current water struggles, most say that western Kansas agriculture will grow for decades.

“The future is bright, but [it’s] going to be most certainly different,” said Daran Rudnik, K-State director of sustainable irrigation. “There’s an energy here in Kansas unlike any other. I believe we're going to have to be adaptable. We need coordination and cooperation. We’re going to have to lean on each other.”

K-State’s support for agricultural growth takes many shapes, whether developing better seed genetics or leveraging K-State’s land-grant mission to work alongside producers making management decisions, according to Kansas Water Institute Director Susan Metzger.

“The communities and economy of western Kansas represent the heart of what stands to be gained – or lost – based on how resilient our agricultural industries, infrastructure and supply chains can be to climate and water-related risks,” Metzger said.

Olson said K-State must improve its understanding of the Ogallala and associated management factors for successful future generations of livestock and forage producers. He said the plan is to take a systems approach to the problem of a limited water future, including irrigation engineering, forage production, feeding trials and breeding programs.

“There’s some great momentum here, and we need to keep moving forward. I want to see all these small towns grow [and] thrive,” he said. “Because western Kansas depends on agriculture, and agriculture depends on water.”