This Marketing Minute...or 2 or 3 with Daniel O'Brien is part of a longer discussion of the USDA May WASDE report shared on K-State's AgManager.info website. Below is a written summary of that discussion.
Marketing Minute with Daniel O’Brien
USDA WASDE Report Sparks Positive Response in Grain Markets
Colby, KAN. (May 10, 2024)—The May USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released at 11 a.m. Central time, has spurred a positive response in the grain markets, particularly in corn, soybeans, and wheat. We spoke with Daniel O’Brien, K-State agricultural economist, regarding the implications of the May 10 WASDE report on market trends and potential outcomes for farmers, investors, and participants in the TAPS program.
Corn Market Analysis
The USDA's report revealed anticipated production figures for U.S. corn in the coming year, projecting around 90 million acres planted and over 82 million acres expected to be harvested. With a projected 181 bushels per acre yield, the long-term trend line suggests a production of approximately 14.86 billion bushels. However, O’Brien cautions that achieving this yield may require ideal growing conditions throughout the season.
Despite the USDA's initial outlook conference projections of 2.2 to 2.5 billion bushels of carryout, the current estimate stands at 2.1 billion bushels, indicating a potential market tightening. Adjusting for a slightly lower yield, O’Brien estimates ending stocks closer to 1.8 billion bushels, which could historically translate to higher prices, possibly nearing $5 per bushel.
Soybean Market Analysis
Though record-high, the USDA's projection of 4.45 billion bushels of soybeans at a yield of 52 bushels per acre may face challenges, as O’Brien suggests. He notes that a slight deviation in the average yield could significantly impact stock estimates, with a potential decrease from the projected 450 million bushels to around 200 million bushels.
This discrepancy could have substantial implications for soybean prices, with O’Brien hinting at a possible shift from the current projection of $12.10 per bushel to a higher range, depending on actual yields and usage trends.
Wheat Market Analysis
While the USDA report provided less concrete figures for wheat, O’Brien acknowledges the market's sensitivity to various factors, including production concerns and global supply-demand dynamics. Despite uncertainties, the report suggests a potential uptick in wheat exports due to anticipated weaknesses in other major producing regions, notably Russia.
Understanding Basis Trends in the Tapps Program
So what is the impact of the basis trends on the TAPS program, and what implications do participants making marketing decisions need to consider? Basis, the difference between cash and futures prices has been predominantly negative nationwide, sparking concerns among market participants.
O’Brien highlighted the significance of monitoring basis trends, particularly in regions like Colby, Kansas, where improvements have been observed in recent weeks. He attributed these improvements to local supply-demand dynamics and potential weather risks, such as the re-emergence of La Nina, which could lead to dry weather conditions in the upcoming months.
As O’Brien emphasized, heightened market worries and weather-related factors could significantly narrow basis bids, especially in response to production challenges in regions like western Kansas. This trend underscores the importance of closely monitoring weather forecasts and production risks for informed decision-making within the TAPS program.
Despite the current wide gap in new crop basis bids, O'Brien suggested that a shift towards narrower basis bids may occur as the season progresses and weather-related crop threats become more apparent. He also noted the advantage of irrigation in mitigating production risks, particularly in regions susceptible to weather fluctuations.